The Economic Recovery Has Begun

First, let me come clean with this admission. I am not a Gartner or Forrester visionary who puts a "Good Housekeeping" label on all he surveys. I'm the guy in the trenches and the quintessential errand boy who is always out there, whether it be on assignment or running errands for Mrs. Gillis. The fun part is that Mrs. Gillis also drags me out on mini vacations to take a little break and enjoy the "world."Recently, this meant a trip to Naples, Florida. Recession? Add it to the other 12 that occupy space in the archives since the GD. #13 is just about over because, at the holders of the purse strings level, confidence has crept in. It's not Naples, Italy, mind you, but Florida has been beat up so badly that it's nice to see some recovery there. The good hotels, with reasonable rates, were mostly booked, but you could get a room at the Ritz Carlton at Pelican Bay if your stock portfolio and 401 (k) rebounded to pre-2008 values. The shops on 5th Avenue and Third Street were teeming with people - all happy and spending like crazy. The best places to eat were booked solid but the wait was worthwhile.

Follow John and Jane Consumer and you'll see the early signs of recovery. This is just what banks need to get back to those fundamentals everyone is talking about.

Now for the reality of our space - the bank tech industry. For the first time in the 25 years that Automation in Banking has been tracking, there was a decline in the combined revenue of the top bank tech companies in 2009. The decline was 6.7% and every company lost ground. No viable marketing spin or Wall Street speak can alter this hard, cold fact. The only positive statement that can be made is to look at what's happening in places such as Naples. The grass-roots are bringing the economy back to life, but it won't reach the screens of money centers like NYC until Wall Street confirms it. That's OK, banking does not live by large banks alone.

What is the difference between the West Coast of Florida and the East Coast of Florida?

Answers: M&I Bank, Fifth Third Bank, Northern Trust, Harris Trust, Huntington Bank all have branches along Route 41 vs. none of the NYC-based banks. Conclusion - The recovery has started, especially if you follow the midwest influence, aka the heart of the community bank stronghold. As bankers conclude their nail-biting management style and get back to running the factory, they might see the wisdom of feeding the tech gorilla. By 2011, we might even see a combined increase in vendor revenue of 2% among the Top 4 rather than the current Top 7.